Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX, has never shied away from making bold market calls. His latest projection might be the most ambitious yet: Bitcoin reaching $3.4 million per coin by 2028. While this figure seems staggering, Hayes grounds his outlook in macroeconomic and structural shifts he believes are inevitable.
The Core Thesis: Monetary Expansion on an Unprecedented Scale
Hayes’ argument rests on the assumption that the U.S. government will pursue aggressive monetary interventions in the coming years. Central to his thesis is the possibility that Scott Bessent, a prominent hedge fund manager rumored to be a candidate for U.S. Treasury Secretary, could implement yield curve control (YCC).
- What is YCC? It’s a policy where the central bank caps long-term interest rates by purchasing government bonds in unlimited quantities. This allows governments to borrow heavily without facing rising yields.
- Why does it matter for Bitcoin? Such a strategy could massively increase the money supply, weaken trust in fiat currencies, and channel capital toward scarce, non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin.
Hayes calls this potential shift a “once-in-a-century change” in the global monetary order.
Hayes’ Assumptions and Numbers
To support his forecast, Hayes builds out projections on U.S. credit creation:
- By 2028, total credit growth (from both the Fed and commercial banks) could reach $15.2 trillion.
- The Federal Reserve would need to purchase roughly 50% of new Treasury issuances to sustain borrowing costs.
- Commercial banks could expand credit by an additional $7.5 trillion.
He also highlights the importance of the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) mechanism. If a Trump administration gains influence over the Fed’s Board of Governors, it could steer short-term interest rates in politically favorable directions, amplifying liquidity injections.
Stablecoins as the Trojan Horse of Dollar Dominance
Beyond U.S. policy, Hayes believes the role of stablecoins will be critical. In earlier writings, he suggested that $10–13 trillion of Eurodollar flows — deposits of U.S. dollars held outside of America — could eventually be captured by stablecoin issuers like Tether.
If these funds migrate into blockchain-based stablecoins, the implications could be profound:
- Citizens in emerging markets could bypass weak local currencies, using stablecoin wallets (possibly built into everyday apps like WhatsApp) to transact in digital dollars.
- This could erode monetary sovereignty in developing economies, as governments lose control over domestic money supply.
- Even the euro could face existential challenges if powerful EU member states, like Germany or France, prioritize national economic strategies over broader union stability.
In Hayes’ view, stablecoins act as the bridge between global capital flows and crypto-native ecosystems, ultimately driving liquidity into Bitcoin.
Personal Market Moves – Walking the Talk
Hayes isn’t just theorizing. His recent moves show how he balances long-term conviction with short-term pragmatism. He revealed selling his entire HYPE token holdings, locking in approximately $823,000 in profit. Notably, he admitted diverting some of the proceeds toward a luxury car purchase — a reminder that even seasoned traders prioritize liquidity when opportunities arise.
At the same time, Hayes warned investors not to get carried away by lofty forecasts. He pointed to risks such as:
- Token unlock schedules, which often flood the market with new supply.
- Liquidity crunches, especially during market drawdowns.
- Event-driven sell pressure, where early investors or insiders cash out.
Why $3.4 Million?
Hayes’ Bitcoin target isn’t arbitrary. By layering his credit growth forecasts with expected global adoption of stablecoins and assumptions about Bitcoin’s share of digital asset flows, he arrives at the $3.4 million figure. In essence, if trillions of dollars flood into the system while fiat currencies lose credibility, Bitcoin becomes the ultimate safe haven.
Critical Takeaways
- Ultra-bullish but conditional: Hayes’ target is one of the most aggressive among industry leaders. It relies on extreme scenarios of monetary debasement and stablecoin-driven adoption.
- Timing matters: Even if Bitcoin eventually achieves million-dollar valuations, the path there may involve severe volatility, policy pushback, and systemic risks.
- Practical mindset: Hayes balances his long-term bullishness with tactical trading decisions, showing that conviction doesn’t mean ignoring short-term risks.
Arthur Hayes envisions a future where global monetary policies and stablecoins collide to catapult Bitcoin into multi-million-dollar territory. While his reasoning highlights real structural risks in the fiat system, the forecast is far from guaranteed — and investors should weigh both the upside potential and the risks of relying on such extreme scenarios.